There seems to be a noticeable gap in the release schedule for AAA fantasy RPGs. Apart from the confusingly named Lords of the Fallen sequel, many of these upcoming games seem pretty far off. The Witcher 4, The Elder Scrolls 6, Dragon Age: Dreadwolf, and Avowed all seem to be hovering somewhere on the horizon, but it's impossible to say when they will arrive. None of them have clear release windows, and the first two don't even have official titles yet.
CD Projekt Red officially announced The Witcher 4 last year, though information on the project remains relatively sparse. However, given its recent announcement, the game's probably far off. One might also assume it won't arrive until the other big AAA action RPGs are out the door. However, that's not as much of a sure thing as it might appear, and The Witcher 4 has a good chance of beating Avowed and TES6 to the punch.
The Witcher 4, The Elder Scrolls 6, and Avowed
Officially announced in 2018, The Elder Scrolls 6's early announcement makes it a poster child for games revealed too early. Bethesda had no plans to release it until well after the still-upcoming Starfield, and Tod Howard confirmed that The Elder Scrolls 6 was still in pre-production as of June 2022. This was at least somewhat frustrating for TES fans, who've waited over a decade for a new mainline Elders Scrolls RPG.
Some hoped Obsidian's Avowed might hold them over until TES 6. Announced in 2020, Avowed is a first-person action RPG spinoff of the Pillars of Eternity series. However, Obsidian's been relatively quiet since that announcement. That doesn't necessarily point to any problem behind the scenes, and the title could be right around the corner as far as anyone knows. Still, the lack of information is frustrating.
The game most people are calling the Witcher 4 is codenamed Project Polaris and is one of two Witcher games in development. CDPR is using Unreal Engine 5 for its upcoming games, rather than the proprietary REDengine 4 the studio used in Cyberpunk 2077. It will be the start of a new trilogy set in The Witcher's world, though CD Projekt hasn't revealed anything else about it.
The Witcher 4 Could Beat Other AAA Games to the Punch
While The Elder Scrolls 6 and Avowed may still release first, there's still plenty of opportunity for The Witcher 4 to swoop in and steal the spotlight. Although none of these games have release dates yet, fans aren't totally in the dark either. Last October, IGN contributor Ryan Dinsdale reported that The Witcher 4's release date was at least three years away based on the contents of a CD Projekt investor call. This may be an overly optimistic estimate, but it points to The Witcher 4 launching in late 2025 at the absolute earliest.
As for the other two games, the GeForce leak from 2021 suggested TES 6 might launch next year. However, the news that it was still in pre-production in 2022 makes that seem very unlikely. Meanwhile, industry insider Tyler McVicker suggested The Elder Scrolls 6 won't launch until 2026 or later, and a 2027 release date wouldn't be unlikely, either. That would be four years after Starfield's release, the same amount of time as between Skyrim and Fallout 4.
Obsidian's game is trickier, given the lack of information about the project. Avowed might come out in 2024, according to a report from January. However, its absence from Xbox and Bethesda's last Developer Direct showcase raises questions about how far away the game is. Avowed might still come out in 2024, but 2025 or 2026 aren't unrealistic.
This means The Witcher 4 may have a chance to release before the other two games. Of course, it would be tight, and even a minor setback at CDPR could set the studio way behind. However, based on what the public knows about all three games, it's not impossible either.